As you know, this is the Missouri Valley’s 100th anniversary and after sending three teams to the Big Dance and two to the Sweet 16, the Valley should have another banner year as Creighton, Southern Illinois, Wichita State, and Missouri State will contend for the Valley crown.
Last year, Bradley coach Jim Les seemed to be the guy on the hot seat but instead led Bradley to the Sweet 16, the school’s first Sweet 16 since 1955, which cooled his hot seat.
But with Patrick Bryant and Marcellus Sommerville gone from the Hilltop, the Braves will have to rely on Daniel Ruffin, who is the Braves’ returning leading scorer, averaging 7.7 points a game, so the chances of Bradley repeating the run that it made in the postseason last year will be very slim, but they should still make noise in the Valley.
Five years ago, Indiana State was conference champions, defeated the Hoosiers in a thriller in Terre Haute, and won a game in the NCAA tournament by defeating Oklahoma in the first round.
Now, Indiana State is pretty much in a rebuilding mode, losing leading scorer David Moss to graduation and leaving coach Royce Waltman on the hot seat, which is unfair because of the talent that he is working with in Terre Haute.
Indiana State will not be in the same boat as their Hoosier State brethen Evansville, where Steve Merfield is in his 6th year and finished 11-17 and 5-13 in the Valley, one game better than Indiana State and Illinois State.
Five of the Aces’ six starters will return to Evansville and try to deliver the Aces’ first winning season since 1999, which was the last time the Aces made the NCAA tournament.
And not only that, the Aces bring back 53 points a game plus 20.6 rebounds per game in guards Shy Ely and Jason Holsinger, center Bradley Strickland, and forward Mark Webster.
So expect the Aces to turn things around and claw for the upper echelon of the Missouri Valley.
In Des Moines, Dr. Tom Davis hasn’t found the prescription to turn things around for Drake, as Drake stumbled to yet another losing season in Des Moines.
The lone bright spots for the Bulldogs is Klayton Korver (Kyle’s brother) and returning leading scorer Ajay Davis, but that would probably not be enough to guarantee a winning season in Des Moines.
For Illinois State, it seems that coach Porter Moser can’t seem to win games in Normal, which was easy for the former Creighton standout before he took the job with the Redbirds.
But with unexpected high hopes, the locals in Normal seem to hinge their hopes of contending in the Valley on the shoulders of forward Greg Dilligard, who is the Redbirds’ returning leading scorer with just under 10 points a game.
As far as that, the Redbirds will have another long season in the Twin Cities and more than likely, Moser will be out of a job at Illinois State if the team fails to improve.
The phrase “got screwed” would be the term for the Missouri State Bears, who finished 22-9 and 12-6 in league play, respectable numbers for an at-large bid to the Big Dance.
But instead it meant that the Bears would be on the outside looking in and invited to the Little Dance where they made the quarterfinals and fell to Louisville.
Still, the lessons that the Bears carried over from last year, will mean that this edition of Missouri State basketball will be playing with anger from last year’s snub to the Big Dance.
Blake Ahearn, who is arguably the best free-throw shooter in the last 25 years, will return for the Maroon and White for his senior year. The All-MVC guard averaged 16.2 points a game and led the nation in free-throw percentage with 93.6 clip.
So the diagnosis for the Bears would be a 20-win season and a spot in another NIT.
The Ben Jacobson era begins in Cedar Falls, where the Panthers finished 23-10 and earned an invite to the Big Dance. Also the Panthers are opening a new arena that is only for basketball after years of playing in the UNI Dome (which will be only for the football team).
Northern Iowa returns forward Grant Stout, who averaged under 12 points a game, who was also the Valley’s best rebounder with under 9 per game as well as key players like Eric Coleman and Brooks McKowen. Coleman made 57.8 percent of his shots from the field in 2005-06, which should be the same type of stats the folks in Cedar Falls will expect Coleman to produce in 2006-07.
There are three things that are common these days in Omaha, death, taxes, and Creighton making the postseason.
The Bluejays have made it to the postseason nine straight years and are the odds-on favorite to win the Valley for the first time since 2003.They are on the right road to doing that with the return of guards Nate Funk and Nick Porter.
The Bluejays will also rely on the play of Anthony Tolliver, who averaged 13 a game and 6 rebounds for the team last year. Should the trio put up the numbers they put up in 2005-06, the Bluejays will be returning to the Big Dance once again.
In Wichita, Mark Turgeon has completed the turnaround of the once-dead Wichita State program by taking the Shockers to the Missouri Valley regular season championship and the Sweet 16.
And with Karon Bradley and company back, the Shockers should make similar results in 06-07 as they return most of their starters from the 2006 Missouri Valley champions.
In Carbondale, the Salukis will once again contend for the Valley title and win 20 games and probably find a cure for cancer as well.
The Salukis are returning Jamal Tatum and Tony Young, both of whom contributed to the Salukis’ Missouri Valley Conference tournament crown and the program’s fifth straight Big Dance, the longest stretch of success in school history.
So with that being said about the Valley, here’s how I see it for the 2006-07 season:
1. Creighton (20-10 in 05-06) NIT (12-6 MVC)
2. Southern Illinois (22-11) NCAA (12-6 MVC)
3. Wichita State (26-9) NCAA (14-4 MVC)
4. Missouri State (22-9) NIT (12-6)
5. Northern Iowa (23-10) NCAA (11-7)
6. Evansville (11-17) (5-13)
7. Bradley (22-11) NCAA (11-7)
8. Illinois State (9-19) (4-14)
9. Drake (12-19) (5-13)
10. Indiana State (13-16) (4-14)
